← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 78% | 75% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 14% | 6.29 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 6% | 11% | 15.41 | value: +71% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
| 13' | 🟨 | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 33' | ⚽ | Gervinho · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Federico Bernardeschi · Juventus FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luca Rigoni · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 58' | ⚽ | Blaise Matuidi · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
| 7 | On target | 10 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Ennio Tardini |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 639.00 | 1523.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1578.75 | 2037.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.36 | 7.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 1.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 1.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.50 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 2.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 28.65 | 29.70 |
| state index | 0.15 | 1.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |