← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal win | 39% | 43% | 2.47 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.01 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 28% | 30% | 3.47 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Jasmin Kurtić · Spal |
| 49' | ⚽ | Mirco Antenucci · Spal |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
| 69' | 🟨 | Leo Štulac · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Manuel Lazzari · Spal |
| 71' | 🟨 | Felipe · Spal |
| 72' | 🟨 | Andrea Petagna · Spal |
| 73' | 🟨 | Antonino Barillà · Parma Calcio 1913 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days | 1364.00 | 633.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1625.32 | 1585.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.02 | 14.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | — |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.97 | 29.93 |
| state index | 0.90 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |