← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, Aug 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Piccinini, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 72% | 76% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 16% | 5.26 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 9% | 8% | 10.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Stipe Perica · Frosinone Calcio |
| 48' | ⚽ | Hans Hateboer · Atalanta BC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Frosinone Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Frosinone Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.60 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.59 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| 0.00 |
| coach days | 810.00 | 445.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -6.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.94 | 3.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1720.86 | 1539.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.13 | 0.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | — |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | — |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 3.83 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.73 | — |
| state index | 1.24 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |