← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 38% | 41% | 2.59 | value: +6% |
| SS Lazio win | 35% | 32% | 2.78 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 59' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 869.00 | 109.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 3.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1707.15 | 1840.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.36 | -10.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.50 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | 1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 26.16 |
| state index | 0.75 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | 1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |