← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 63% | 65% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.29 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 15% | 13% | 6.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Vasilīs Torosidīs · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 28' | 🟨 | Simone Verdi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 30' | ⚽ | Seko Fofana · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days |
| 49.00 |
| 962.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1476.20 | 1486.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.78 | -28.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| league points | 37.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.28 | — |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.38 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |