← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal win | 53% | 66% | 1.85 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 26% | 17% | 3.78 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 21% | 17% | 4.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Gianluca Caprari · Sampdoria |
| 4' | ⚽ (pen) | Mirco Antenucci · Spal |
| 32' | 🟨 | Gianluca Caprari · Sampdoria |
| 32' | 🟥 | Gianluca Caprari · Sampdoria |
| 45' | 🟨 | Karol Linetty · Sampdoria |
| 50' | ⚽ | Alberto Grassi · Spal |
| 52' | ⚽ | Mirco Antenucci · Spal |
| 65' | ⚽ | Dawid Kownacki · Sampdoria |
| 74' | 🟨 | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 76' | 🟨 | Federico Viviani · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days |
| 1266.00 |
| 688.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1527.58 | 1555.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.84 | -9.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.71 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 46.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| league points | 35.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | — | 22.98 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |