← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Eugenio Abbattista, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 55% | 48% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 20% | 26% | 4.84 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Federico Fazio · AS Roma |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Gianluca Pegolo · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davide Biondini · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| coach days |
| 200.00 |
| 353.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1531.64 | 1795.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.40 | 19.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| league points | 43.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | 0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.64 |
| state index | 0.50 | 1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.39 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |