← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 69% | 65% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 22% | 5.55 | value: +24% |
| Crotone win | 14% | 12% | 7.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 32' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marco Tumminello · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 3 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days |
| 19.00 |
| 688.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.91 | 1.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1838.51 | 1489.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.29 | 32.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 88.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.75 | -1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 0.97 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.19 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |