← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 59% | 58% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.31 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 19% | 22% | 5.23 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · ACF Fiorentina |
| 22' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 23' | ⚽ | Hakan Çalhanoğlu · AC Milan |
| 26' | 🟨 | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 34' | 🟨 | Hakan Çalhanoğlu · AC Milan |
| 41' | ⚽ | Patrick Cutrone · AC Milan |
| 49' | ⚽ | Nikola Kalinić · AC Milan |
| 59' | ⚽ | Patrick Cutrone · AC Milan |
| 76' | ⚽ | Giacomo Bonaventura · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days |
| 200.00 |
| 353.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1666.95 | 1650.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.93 | -6.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| league points | 61.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.50 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 22.09 | — |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |