← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 38% | 35% | 2.57 | fair |
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 36% | 42% | 2.72 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (og) | Ivan Perisic · SS Lazio |
| 13' | 🟨 | Marcelo Brozović · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 23' | 🟨 | João Miranda · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 26' | 🟨 | Luiz Felipe · SS Lazio |
| 29' | ⚽ | Danilo D'Ambrosio · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 34' | 🟨 | Senad Lulić · SS Lazio |
| 37' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 41' | ⚽ | Felipe Anderson · SS Lazio |
| 47' | 🟨 | Danilo D'Ambrosio · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 63' | 🟨 | Thomas Strakosha · SS Lazio |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Mauro Icardi · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 79' | 🟨 | Senad Lulić · SS Lazio |
| 79' | 🟥 | Senad Lulić · SS Lazio |
| 81' | ⚽ | Matías Vecino · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 82' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 90' | 🟥 | Patric · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 779.00 | 353.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 9.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 4.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1719.48 | 1697.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.49 | -0.80 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | 1.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.60 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| league points | 72.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 2.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.60 |
| squad age | 26.27 | — |
| state index | 1.00 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |