← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Illuzzi Lorenzo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 43% | 31% | 2.28 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 31% | 40% | 3.16 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.71 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Nicolas N'Koulou · Torino FC |
| 30' | ⚽ | Iago Falque · Torino FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cristian Ansaldi · Torino FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Stephane Omeonga · Genoa CFC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Cristian Ansaldi · Torino FC |
| 83' | 🟥 | Cristian Ansaldi · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days |
| 200.00 |
| 139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1499.78 | 1619.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.02 | -2.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.77 |
| league points | 41.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |