← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 57% | 67% | 1.70 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.04 | fair |
| Benevento win | 19% | 12% | 5.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | ⚽ | Roberto Inglese · Chievo |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| coach days | 1327.00 | 231.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 0.60 |
| 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1481.12 | 1425.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.32 | 11.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.63 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 47.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| league points | 37.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |