← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 45% | 51% | 2.19 | value: +11% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 29% | 27% | 3.38 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 46' | 🟨 | Timothy Castagne · Atalanta BC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 87' | ⚽ | Luca Ceppitelli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Cigarini · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 11 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 1084.00 | 718.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 3.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1467.11 | 1707.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.25 | 19.51 |
| eye test v1 | -1.48 | 1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.49 | 0.78 |
| league points | 36.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.73 |
| state index | -0.51 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |