← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Riccardo Pinzani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 89% | 92% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 6% | 13.00 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 3% | 2% | 28.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | ⚽ | Daniele Rugani · Juventus FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Mohamed Fares · Hellas Verona FC |
| 52' | ⚽ | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Marco Fossati · Hellas Verona FC |
| 76' | ⚽ | Alessio Cerci · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 9 |
| 13 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1418.00 |
| 717.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1914.25 | 1404.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.62 | -49.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| league points | 92.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.49 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.66 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 1.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | 1.11 | -1.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.46 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |