← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 68% | 56% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.04 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 12% | 25% | 7.90 | value: +94% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Antonín Barák · Udinese Calcio |
| 28' | 🟨 | Marco Fossati · Hellas Verona FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 59' | 🟨 | Valon Behrami · Udinese Calcio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Rômulo · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days |
| 711.00 |
| 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1414.60 | 1465.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -50.43 | -34.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.73 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.52 |
| league points | 25.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.28 |
| state index | -1.28 | -1.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |