← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 51% | 40% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.44 | value: +12% |
| Spal win | 21% | 27% | 4.70 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Alberto Grassi · Spal |
| 27' | 🟨 | Eros Schiavon · Spal |
| 60' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Everton Luiz · Spal |
| 68' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Spal |
| 68' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jasmin Kurtić · Spal |
| 83' | 🟨 | Emiliano Moretti · Torino FC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bartosz Salamon · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 132.00 | 1259.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1613.02 | 1533.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.48 | 16.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.80 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 48.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |