← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 64% | 55% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.98 | value: +19% |
| Sampdoria win | 17% | 22% | 5.89 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 72' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 73' | 🟨 | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 80' | ⚽ | Raúl Albiol · SSC Napoli |
| 86' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Sampdoria |
| 86' | 🟨 | Marek Hamšík · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Karol Linetty · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 12 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 681.00 | 12.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1562.49 | 1831.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.28 | -19.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.50 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| league points | 54.00 | 85.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.14 | 1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 22.98 | 26.16 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | 1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |