β Serie A 2017-18 Β· Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Paolo Tagliavento, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 35% | 23% | 2.79 | fair |
| AS Roma win | 33% | 43% | 2.94 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | 2.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | π¨ | Miralem PjaniΔ Β· Juventus FC |
| 43' | π¨ | Alex Sandro Β· Juventus FC |
| 63' | π¨ | Radja Nainggolan Β· AS Roma |
| 68' | π¨ | Radja Nainggolan Β· AS Roma |
| 68' | π₯ | Radja Nainggolan Β· AS Roma |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 346.00 | 1412.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.99 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1794.08 | 1916.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.47 | -10.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| league points | 73.00 | 91.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 2.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.91 | 1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.86 | β |
| state index | 1.33 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | 1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |