← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 43% | 35% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Chievo win | 26% | 37% | 3.76 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Simone Verdi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 17' | 🟨 | Dario Dainelli · Chievo |
| 22' | 🟨 | Filip Helander · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 48' | 🟨 | Emanuele Giaccherini · Chievo |
| 48' | ⚽ | Emanuele Giaccherini · Chievo |
| 60' | ⚽ | Roberto Inglese · Chievo |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nicola Rigoni · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days | 955.00 | 1320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1499.18 | 1468.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.18 | 6.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.63 | 0.80 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 39.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |