← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento win | 44% | 29% | 2.20 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 29% | 45% | 3.40 | value: +53% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · Benevento |
| 44' | 🟨 | Andrea Bertolacci · Genoa CFC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Cheick Diabaté · Benevento |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Benevento | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Ciro Vigorito |
| coach days |
| 223.00 |
| 192.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1414.66 | 1510.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.88 | 0.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.10 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.49 | 0.73 |
| league points | 18.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |