← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 52% | 51% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.72 | value: +22% |
| Udinese Calcio win | 21% | 16% | 4.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 26 |
| 2 | On target | 12 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days |
| 35.00 |
| 339.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 4.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1476.33 | 1703.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.10 | -4.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.77 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.81 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.81 |
| league points | 34.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | 1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.28 | — |
| state index | -1.22 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |