← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal win | 64% | 66% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.63 | fair |
| Benevento win | 15% | 16% | 6.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Francesco Vicari · Spal |
| 25' | ⚽ | Alberto Paloschi · Spal |
| 53' | 🟨 | Sandro · Benevento |
| 73' | 🟨 | Federico Mattiello · Spal |
| 81' | 🟨 | Luca Sparandeo · Benevento |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Mirco Antenucci · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1252.00 | 217.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1525.31 | 1423.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.15 | 11.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 45.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| league points | 32.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 0.51 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |