← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 43% | 33% | 2.25 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 29% | 34% | 3.34 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.55 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 54' | 🟨 | Federico Peluso · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 68' | ⚽ | Matteo Politano · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 2 |
| 7 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| coach days | 186.00 | 674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1612.96 | 1682.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.97 | 0.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 42.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| league points | 37.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.02 | 26.81 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.19 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |