← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 80% | 80% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.42 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 7% | 7% | 14.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Nicolás Burdisso · Torino FC |
| 25' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 52' | 🟨 | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 55' | ⚽ | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 71' | ⚽ | Marek Hamšík · SSC Napoli |
| 74' | 🟨 | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolas N'Koulou · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 5.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1838.45 | 1606.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.42 | -7.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.85 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 84.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.81 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.02 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |