← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 49% | 51% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.57 | fair |
| Atalanta BC win | 23% | 27% | 4.16 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Musa Barrow · Atalanta BC |
| 21' | 🟨 | Luiz Felipe · SS Lazio |
| 24' | ⚽ | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 48' | 🟨 | Andrea Masiello · Atalanta BC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Alessandro Murgia · SS Lazio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Tolói · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 765.00 | 704.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 3.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1726.43 | 1708.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.67 | 15.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | 1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.90 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 70.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.73 |
| state index | 0.91 | 1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |