← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 47% | 48% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.58 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 25% | 25% | 3.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Andrea Bertolacci · Genoa CFC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Milan Badelj · ACF Fiorentina |
| 43' | ⚽ | Marco Benassi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 51' | 🟨 | Bruno Gaspar · ACF Fiorentina |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nicolás Spolli · Genoa CFC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 63' | 🟨 | Riccardo Saponara · ACF Fiorentina |
| 64' | ⚽ | Giuseppe Rossi · Genoa CFC |
| 68' | ⚽ | Gianluca Lapadula · Genoa CFC |
| 71' | 🟥 | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Valentin Eysseric · ACF Fiorentina |
| 80' | ⚽ | Bryan Dabo · ACF Fiorentina |
| 81' | 🟨 | Bryan Dabo · ACF Fiorentina |
| 83' | 🟥 | Ervin Zukanović · Genoa CFC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 186.00 | 339.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1630.77 | 1765.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.38 | 20.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| league points | 41.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.20 | 24.91 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |