← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 43% | 41% | 2.28 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.12 | value: +8% |
| Crotone win | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Valter Birsa · Chievo |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Chievo |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nicola Rigoni · Chievo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Chievo |
| 82' | 🟨 | Davide Faraoni · Crotone |
| 82' | ⚽ | Mariusz Stępiński · Chievo |
| 88' | 🟨 | Stefano Sorrentino · Chievo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marco Tumminello · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days |
| 1313.00 |
| 674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 1.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1459.29 | 1494.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.06 | 40.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 31.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.66 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |