← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 69% | 71% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.09 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 12% | 11% | 8.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Cengiz Ünder · AS Roma |
| 23' | 🟨 | Charalampos Lykogiannis · Cagliari Calcio |
| 38' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 73' | 🟨 | Artur Ioniță · Cagliari Calcio |
| 88' | 🟨 | Luca Ceppitelli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 88' | 🟨 | Gerson · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| coach days | 1070.00 | 339.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1453.87 | 1790.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.74 | -9.37 |
| eye test v1 | -1.17 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.49 | 0.76 |
| league points | 33.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.86 |
| state index | -0.75 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |