← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 88% | 84% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 12% | 11.25 | value: +38% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 4% | 4% | 26.20 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Hakan Çalhanoğlu · AC Milan |
| 32' | ⚽ | Patrick Cutrone · AC Milan |
| 49' | ⚽ | Ignazio Abate · AC Milan |
| 69' | 🟨 | Fabio Borini · AC Milan |
| 85' | ⚽ | Seung-Woo Lee · Hellas Verona FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Fabio Borini · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days |
| 185.00 |
| 703.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1658.66 | 1419.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.57 | -36.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 57.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.64 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 22.09 | — |
| state index | 0.32 | -1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |