← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 86% | 79% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 17% | 9.44 | value: +62% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 4% | 4% | 25.95 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 18' | 🟨 | Andrea Poli · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 26' | 🟨 | Daniele Rugani · Juventus FC |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Simone Verdi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 51' | ⚽ (og) | Sebastien De Maio · Juventus FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Crisetig · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 63' | ⚽ | Sami Khedira · Juventus FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Palacio · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 1404.00 | 947.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1914.17 | 1501.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.77 | -13.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.76 |
| league points | 88.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.51 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.54 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | 1.24 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |