← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal win | 41% | 38% | 2.39 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.24 | value: +11% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Mattia Valoti · Hellas Verona FC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Francesco Vicari · Spal |
| 34' | 🟨 | Everton Luiz · Spal |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Mohamed Fares · Spal |
| 53' | 🟨 | Antonio Caracciolo · Hellas Verona FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Spal |
| 71' | ⚽ | Felipe · Spal |
| 86' | 🟨 | Seung-Woo Lee · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jasmin Kurtić · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days |
| 697.00 |
| 1245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1434.19 | 1511.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.77 | -1.75 |
| eye test v1 | -1.30 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| league points | 25.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.80 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |