← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 66% | 66% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.71 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 13% | 16% | 7.58 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟥 | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
| 24' | 🟨 | Vincent Laurini · ACF Fiorentina |
| 33' | 🟨 | Raúl Albiol · SSC Napoli |
| 34' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · ACF Fiorentina |
| 37' | 🟨 | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 45' | 🟨 | Milan Badelj · ACF Fiorentina |
| 60' | 🟨 | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 62' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · ACF Fiorentina |
| 76' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 78' | 🟨 | Valentin Eysseric · ACF Fiorentina |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 4 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 332.00 | 1063.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1739.84 | 1978.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.63 | 6.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| league points | 51.00 | 84.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 67.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 2.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 24.39 | 28.65 |
| state index | 0.64 | 1.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |