← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 42% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +7% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 27% | 25% | 3.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Marcello Trotta · Crotone |
| 16' | ⚽ | Simy · Crotone |
| 31' | ⚽ | Marcello Trotta · Crotone |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · Crotone |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mauricio Lemos · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Marcello Trotta · Crotone |
| 85' | 🟨 | Arlind Ajeti · Crotone |
| 89' | ⚽ | Simy · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| 3.80 |
| coach days | 667.00 | 179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1579.33 | 1629.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.85 | 22.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 67.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| league points | 31.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | -1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.39 | 27.85 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | -1.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |