← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 59% | 57% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.94 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 16% | 18% | 5.99 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Manuel Locatelli · AC Milan |
| 34' | ⚽ | Hakan Çalhanoğlu · AC Milan |
| 45' | ⚽ | Giacomo Bonaventura · AC Milan |
| 52' | 🟨 | Adam Masina · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 74' | ⚽ | Sebastien De Maio · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days |
| 941.00 |
| 179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1508.71 | 1650.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.26 | -19.94 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| league points | 39.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 22.09 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |