← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 39% | 40% | 2.53 | fair |
| Benevento win | 32% | 34% | 3.04 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Venuti · Benevento |
| 13' | ⚽ | Silvan Widmer · Udinese Calcio |
| 23' | ⚽ | Nicolas Viola · Benevento |
| 26' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · Benevento |
| 47' | 🟨 | Valon Behrami · Udinese Calcio |
| 57' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · Benevento |
| 57' | 🟥 | Danilo Cataldi · Benevento |
| 64' | 🟨 | Andrija Balić · Udinese Calcio |
| 66' | 🟨 | Enrico Brignola · Benevento |
| 75' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Pezzella · Udinese Calcio |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Massimo Coda · Benevento |
| 78' | ⚽ | Kevin Lasagna · Udinese Calcio |
| 79' | ⚽ | Kevin Lasagna · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bacary Sagna · Benevento |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Benevento | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Ciro Vigorito |
| coach days |
| 210.00 |
| 28.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.38 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1423.33 | 1476.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.09 | -43.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.63 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.90 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| league points | 17.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.28 |
| state index | -0.13 | -1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -1.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |