← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 69% | 70% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.80 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 11% | 10% | 8.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Luca Rossettini · Genoa CFC |
| 16' | ⚽ | Musa Barrow · Atalanta BC |
| 22' | ⚽ | Bryan Cristante · Atalanta BC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Timothy Castagne · Atalanta BC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mattia Caldara · Atalanta BC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| coach days | 697.00 | 179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1811.93 | 1636.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.83 | 23.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 55.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.05 | 27.16 |
| state index | 0.97 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |