← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 75% | 74% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 5.78 | value: +8% |
| Chievo win | 8% | 8% | 11.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · AS Roma |
| 24' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Kolarov · AS Roma |
| 28' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 40' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 56' | 🟥 | Juan Jesus · AS Roma |
| 65' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 67' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 88' | ⚽ | Roberto Inglese · Chievo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Radja Nainggolan · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Valter Birsa · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 331.00 |
| 1305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.79 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1787.25 | 1462.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.76 | -1.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| league points | 67.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.60 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.44 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 25.91 | — |
| state index | 0.87 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.93 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |