← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 37% | 38% | 2.62 | fair |
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 32% | 34% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 13' | ⚽ | Douglas Costa · Juventus FC |
| 18' | 🟥 | Matías Vecino · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 21' | 🟨 | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andrea Barzagli · Juventus FC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
| 52' | ⚽ | Mauro Icardi · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 58' | 🟨 | Danilo D'Ambrosio · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 65' | ⚽ (og) | Andrea Barzagli · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 77' | 🟨 | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 87' | ⚽ (og) | Milan Škriniar · Juventus FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marcelo Brozović · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 89' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Internazionale Milano | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days |
| 331.00 |
| 1397.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.09 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1709.39 | 1907.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.58 | -12.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 47.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.92 |
| league points | 66.00 | 85.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | 1.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.94 | 1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.09 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |