← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 49% | 52% | 2.01 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.27 | fair |
| Crotone win | 22% | 19% | 4.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Kevin Lasagna · Udinese Calcio |
| 7' | ⚽ | Simy · Crotone |
| 58' | 🟨 | Valon Behrami · Udinese Calcio |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jakub Jankto · Udinese Calcio |
| 86' | ⚽ | Davide Faraoni · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days | 21.00 | 660.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1600.27 | 1566.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.76 | -2.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| league points | 33.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.84 | 25.96 |
| state index | -1.06 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.39 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |