← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 72% | 76% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.63 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 11% | 9% | 8.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 25' | 🟨 | Dennis Praet · Sampdoria |
| 32' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 43' | ⚽ | Stefan de Vrij · SS Lazio |
| 67' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · Sampdoria |
| 85' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 88' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 751.00 |
| 660.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1708.51 | 1571.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.58 | 4.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 43.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| league points | 64.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 22.98 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |