← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 41% | 47% | 2.36 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.22 | fair |
| SSC Napoli win | 28% | 25% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Kwadwo Asamoah · Juventus FC |
| 9' | 🟨 | Medhi Benatia · Juventus FC |
| 16' | 🟨 | Raúl Albiol · SSC Napoli |
| 27' | 🟨 | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1391.00 |
| 1056.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 3.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1921.56 | 1850.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.75 | -4.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| league points | 85.00 | 81.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 68.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.58 | 2.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.94 | 2.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.16 |
| state index | 1.55 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |