← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 64% | 73% | 1.53 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 23% | 16% | 4.19 | fair |
| Chievo win | 13% | 11% | 7.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | João Cancelo · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 50' | ⚽ | Mauro Icardi · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 61' | ⚽ | Ivan Perisic · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 75' | 🟨 | Manuel Pucciarelli · Chievo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mariusz Stępiński · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1299.00 | 325.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 3.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1580.34 | 1813.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.06 | 1.99 |
| eye test v1 | -1.59 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.83 |
| league points | 31.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | 1.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 0.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 29.83 | 27.34 |
| state index | -0.09 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |