← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 49% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.27 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 21% | 24% | 4.55 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 1056.00 | 934.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1576.39 | 1618.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.02 | 4.22 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | -0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.74 |
| league points | 32.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.99 | 26.88 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |