← Serie A 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Aureliano, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 63% | 62% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.28 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 14% | 15% | 6.81 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | 🟨 | Mattia Caldara · Atalanta BC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 56' | ⚽ | Adem Ljajić · Torino FC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Robin Gosens · Atalanta BC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Cristian Ansaldi · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emiliano Moretti · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| coach days |
| 690.00 |
| 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1696.11 | 1621.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.26 | 32.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 52.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.73 | — |
| state index | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |