← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Tagliavento, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 54% | 61% | 1.80 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.52 | fair |
| Spal win | 18% | 15% | 5.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Francesco Vicari · Spal |
| 9' | 🟨 | Kevin Strootman · AS Roma |
| 12' | 🟨 | Everton Luiz · Spal |
| 33' | ⚽ (og) | Francesco Vicari · AS Roma |
| 39' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
| 52' | ⚽ | Radja Nainggolan · AS Roma |
| 59' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| 1237.00 |
| 324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1519.47 | 1778.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.49 | -21.87 |
| eye test v1 | -1.31 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 29.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | 11.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.91 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |