← Serie A 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 78% | 84% | 1.24 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 15% | 12% | 6.55 | fair |
| Benevento win | 7% | 5% | 13.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Pietro Iemmello · Benevento |
| 59' | 🟨 | Bacary Sagna · Benevento |
| 74' | 🟨 | Cheick Diabaté · Benevento |
| 80' | 🟨 | Cheick Diabaté · Benevento |
| 80' | 🟥 | Cheick Diabaté · Benevento |
| 82' | 🟨 | Manuel Locatelli · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vittorio Parigini · Benevento |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days |
| 171.00 |
| 202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1668.28 | 1406.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.06 | 8.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 46.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.43 |
| league points | 54.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 22.09 | — |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |