← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 41% | 45% | 2.37 | value: +5% |
| Torino FC win | 30% | 26% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Giacomo Bonaventura · AC Milan |
| 25' | 🟨 | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Torino FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Giacomo Bonaventura · AC Milan |
| 70' | ⚽ | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Torino FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Patrick Cutrone · AC Milan |
| 88' | 🟨 | Manuel Locatelli · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 107.00 | 168.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1621.63 | 1667.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.79 | -4.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 46.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 1.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 22.09 |
| state index | 0.65 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |