← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 57% | 51% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.91 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 18% | 25% | 5.48 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Adam Masina · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 55' | 🟨 | Matías Silvestre · Sampdoria |
| 80' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Palacio · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Crisetig · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 656.00 | 930.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1564.89 | 1515.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.22 | 6.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.50 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| league points | 48.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |