← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 74% | 64% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 26% | 5.54 | value: +43% |
| Genoa CFC win | 8% | 11% | 11.66 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Luca Rossettini · Genoa CFC |
| 17' | ⚽ | Cengiz Ünder · AS Roma |
| 52' | ⚽ (og) | Ervin Zukanović · AS Roma |
| 61' | ⚽ | Gianluca Lapadula · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 321.00 |
| 168.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1776.06 | 1517.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.83 | 15.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.81 |
| league points | 61.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.67 | — |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |