← Serie A 2017-18 · Wed, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 80% | 91% | 1.22 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 14% | 6% | 6.75 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 6% | 3% | 16.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Danilo · Udinese Calcio |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jakub Jankto · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 55' | ⚽ | Svante Ingelsson · Udinese Calcio |
| 64' | ⚽ | Raúl Albiol · SSC Napoli |
| 70' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 75' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Tonelli · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ali Adnan · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 19 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days |
| 1052.00 |
| 17.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.97 | 1.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1847.80 | 1490.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.75 | -48.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.59 |
| league points | 78.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.38 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 25.28 |
| state index | 1.10 | -1.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.40 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |